Independent research

This material has been prepared by Will Page at PRS for Music for information purposes only and should not be relied on for any other purpose. It does not constitute the view of the Management or the Boards of MCPS, PRS or any associated company. It is provided for the information of the intended recipient only and should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person without the consent of the PRS for Music PR department. For further enquiries, information, and to request permissions, please contact: press@prsformusic.com

Will Page is the Chief Economist at PRS for Music. He graduated with a MSc in Economics in 2002 and worked for four years at the UK Government Economic Service. His role is to provide analytical support to colleagues within the organisation and to provide economic insight to the music industry as a whole. His work is focussed around three main areas: economic modelling of the recorded music business, the application competition law in two-sided markets and the broken supply chain between copyright and ISPs. He is currently working with Andrew Bud, Executive Chairman of MBlox, on the profile, tension and profitability that exists within 'Long Tail' markets.

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Economic Insight 17 – An introduction to ‘Cost Disease’

Whilst technological improvements benefit the arts in some ways, it still takes four musicians to play a Beethoven string quartet, even if other sectors of the economy have experienced massive productivity gains. It is this relatively slow productivity growth that two economists, Baumol and Bowen, coined as ‘Cost Disease’.  Here Chris Carey, an economist at PRS for Music, provides a timely reminder of this controversial theory and considers how it can be applied to music in a digital age and helps one think about the critical question of how to invest in talent in 2010. 

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Economic Insight 16 – How to dance to ARPU, when licensees call the tune

Will the established ISP metric of ARPU (Average Revenue per User) help bring additional value to the both rights holders and users; or will fears about swapping high-paying music buyers for low-value, or even free music users, (displacement) on one side of the market hinder the abilities of the other to develop new legal models. Furthermore, will it take a new mindset and some new metrics for the music industry to understand and embrace the ‘music as a service’ paradigm? This Insight paper presents the findings from Will’s collaborative research with Spotify, which allows him to work with Chris Carey, David Touve and Keith McMahon to explore the concept of ARPU, to inform both rights holders and rights users about what the acronym implies, and how it might mislead those in the digital music’s supply chain. 

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Music Ally – Spotify the Stats

At a Scottish Society for Computers & Law (SSCL) event in Edinburgh, director of content Niklas Ivarsson took the stage with PRS for Music’s chief economist Will Page for a joint presentation to reveal who’s using Spotify by age and gender and, secondly, how are they using it in terms of Spotify’s long tail distribution. The first part of that presentation is covered in this Music Ally article. 

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Economic Insight 15 – Adding Up The Music Industry for 2008

This report not only adds up the revenues generated by the UK music industry, which totals £3.6 billion for 2008, but also shows how  all the different revenue sources hang together. Importantly, this helps the reader have a better understanding of the more complex business to business revenues (from collective and direct licensing, advertising, sponsorship) which now make up a quarter of total industry value. Reading beneath the top line, whilst recorded is down and live is up, this report also explores the widening gap between hits and niches and raises questions over the sustainability of investment in new artists. 

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Economic Insight 14 – The Long Tail of P2P

The theory of the Long Tail first came to light in Wired Magazine in October 2004, as legal digital music services like iTunes and eMusic were taking off. However, illegal music services like Napster, Grokster or Kazaa had been around, providing digital music fans with a massive choice of music catalogue long before such choice was legally provided. As a result, the well-known anomaly of the digital music world was reinforced–legal services constantly play catch-up with illegal services, and the enforcement of copyright persistently lags advances in technology. With these issues in mind, what does the Long Tail distribution profile of hits and niches look like in the world of massive choice that is P2P? Will Page teamed up with BigChampagne’s Eric Garland to figure it all out. 

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Music Ally – P2P’s Long Tail Laid Bare

Will Page has tag-teamed with Big Champagne CEO, Eric Garland, once again to deliver a presentation to this year’s Great Escape Convention, Brighton, 14-16 May 2009. The topic is the long tail, but the data set is the illegal P2P market, which has been with us a lot longer, and is considered to be a lot larger that the legal digital market. Here, they provide a teaser to Music Ally as to what’s in store.

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PRS For Music ‘M’ Magazine – Digital Britain

Communications Minister Stephen Carter’s view of Digital Britain has been produced in interim form with the full version due in the summer. But what does this mean for the creators of music? Here, Will Page provides a feature piece for the PRS for Music’s own ‘M’ Magazine on whether Carter can provide songwriters with a catalyst for change.

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Telco 2.0 Exclusive Interview – The Long Tail Interrogated (Part 2)

Will Page was the keynote speaker at the fifth Telco 2.0 Executive Brainstorm in London, where he took the opportunity to present, exclusively to Telco 2.0, new research - based on an unprecedented analysis of digital music sales data gathered over a year - that questions the received wisdom around the ‘Long Tail’ theory, and helps to re-define what it actually means and for whom. The presentation created quite a stir at the event, and this TelcomTV Interview with Will and co-author Andrew Bud, executive chairman of mBlox, helps capture what they uncovered. In the Long Tail Interrogated (Part 2), Will Page discusses, at length, the objective of the presentation to help those who weren’t at the conference understand the pioneering work, and then reflects on the reaction to it.

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Economic Insight 12 – Shadow Pricing P2P’s Economic Impact

Against the backdrop of a government consultation, aimed at fostering greater understanding between the Internet Service Providers and the music industry, Will Page works with two colleagues, representing Technology and Telco’s -  David Touve of Vanderbilt University and Keith McMahon of STL Partners – to  ‘knock heads together’ to see whether some common ground, and indeed some common good, can be found through aligning incentives within these disparate camps. 

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UPDATED 1 OCTOBER 2008
Economic Insight 7 – Competition with Reciprocity in a Two Sided Market – A Primer

Although the burgeoning literature on this subject of 'two-sided markets' has obvious relevance to collecting societies, who provide a two-sided platform for rights holders and users, the theory rarely gets discussed in the exchanges between societies, stakeholders and the European Commission. Here, Will Page provides a 'primer' on the theory to make us better placed to understand where competition law and collecting societies might be misunderstanding one another.

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Ecomonic Insight 11 - The R Words: Recession and Royalties

The 'R' word 'recession' is being used with increasing frequency these days, so much so that there's a legitimate danger that the media could talk the economy into entering one. But what actually is a recession, what effects will it have on the UK economy and then what impact will be felt by the various sectors of the music industry? Here, Will Page works through the two 'R' words - recession and royalties - to help the music industry understand who wins and who loses, when an economy contracts for two quarters or more.

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Economic Insight 10 - In Rainbows, On Torrents

For all the media hysteria that surrounded the In Rainbows project, and what the 'average price paid' might have been, there is another less intuitive but far more relevant question that has yet to be asked, or answered.  That is, did their offer of their album 'for free' succeed in diverting traffic away from/Torrent sites, and (back) towards their own 'venue' of InRainbows.com? Put another way: could 'legal free' displace 'illegal free'. Will Page teams up with Eric Garland, CEO of Big Champagne to provide a meaningful answer.

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Music Ally 7 June 2008 - Wannamaker's Solution?

Will Page, Chief Economist at the MCPS-PRS Alliance, looks at the potential revenues to be gained from advertising funded models, and the economic problems which stand in the way of realising them.

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© The Register 28 March 2008 - Can 1,000 Fans Replace the Music Business?

Will Page picks through Kevin Kelly's 1,000 true fans argument and finds the maths doesn't add up.

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Economic Insight 9 - Should Societies Pursue Equity?

Will Page tag-teams with David Touve of Vanderbilt University to instigate a wider discussion about the contentious issue of 'taking equity', providing a catalyst for rights holders to work through what that question would entail.

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Economic Insight 8 - Understanding and interpreting the digital market

Will Page, with contributions from Bruce Dickinson, Oliver Tuercke and IFPI Director of Market Research Gabi Lopes, provides a comprehensive understanding and interpretation of the digital market.

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Economic Insight 6 - Getting the bundle back, Pt. 1: Albumbase.com

Will Page pools his economic analysis with the technical awareness of Paul Sanders of Playlouder, to provide much needed insight into the increasingly and diverse secondary black market for music.

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Economic Insight 2 - A prisoner's dilemma?

What can the film A Beautiful Mind teach us about competition between Europe's Collecting Societies?

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Economic Insight 1 - The value is in the scarcity, but also in the convenience

What can the economics of ticket touting teach creators about the pricing of their music?

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Music Ally 29 November 2007 - Is live the future of music?

Will Page, Chief Economist at the MCPS-PRS Alliance, offers an economic view on how best to approach this question, and whether an answer can be constructed.

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Music Ally 18 October 2007 - Economics: Time To Face The Music

Will Page, Executive Director of Research at the MCPS-PRS Alliance, gives an explanation of the concept of 'wallet share' to help us find out.

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Transmission Conference Paper - Is the price of recorded music heading towards zero?

A conference paper prepared by Will for Transmission - a conference which took place in Canada from 30 November - 2 December 2006.

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